InvestmentEconomyMarketsThe Road Towards 2030 Mega Cities.

Kennnedy MuturiMay 18, 20222649 min
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Consider the world’s largest cities—the metropolises. True behemoths, having populations of more than ten million people. Of course, Tokyo will be on your list. Delhi, Shanghai, Mexico City, New York, and Cairo are examples. If you take pleasure in keeping your general geographical knowledge up to date, you may choose Lagos, Jakarta, and Chongqing. But what about Chengdu? Hyderabad? Luanda?

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They are among ten cities predicted by the UN to surpass the ten-million-person threshold between now and 2030, boosting the overall number of megacities to 43. The growing number of large cities is the most obvious manifestation of the world’s increasing urbanization trend.

Cities housed 751 million people in 1950, accounting for less than one-third of the worldwide population as indicated by the UN. Only two cities had populations of more than ten million people. Currently, metropolitan regions house 55% of the world’s population or 4.2 billion people. We expect That share to rise to 68 percent in another decade, adding another 2.5 billion people to already overcrowded cities.

Due to severe urbanization, ninety percent of the urbanization will occur in Asia and Africa. The cities house four in every five people in the Americas and three-quarters of Europeans. In contrast, cities barely house half of Asia’s population, and Africa remains primarily rural. However, this is fast changing. Currently, 22 of the world’s 33 cities with more than 10 million people are in Asia and Africa, as are all but one of the ten expected to join them by 2030.

India will have the most rapid increase, with 416 million additional urban inhabitants by 2050. we expect Delhi to replace Tokyo as the world’s most populated city by 2028, with a population of 39 million by 2030 according to the World Economic Forum.

By that time, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad will have joined the present megacities of Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore, and Chennai. China will acquire two more megacities, with Chengdu and Nanjing joining the six currently exceeding the ten-million-person level (Shanghai, Beijing, Chongqing, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen).

However, the growth in Asia is not limited to India and China. Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka, is expected to be among the top four most prominent cities in the world by 2030, with a population of 28 million people. Pakistan’s Karachi and Lahore would increase, while Manila and Jakarta would experience significant population growth. Seoul and Ho Chi Minh City will be among the new megacities, while Tehran will surpass 10 million inhabitants.

According to the Washington Post, Japan’s aging population is a striking exception to Asia’s population surge. Osaka was second only to Tokyo twenty years ago. However, its metropolitan region’s population peaked at 19 million people and gradually fell. By 2030, it will have gone out of the top ten entirely.

Africa has the most potential for transformation since it has the most rural people. Cairo will continue to be the continent’s largest metropolis. Kinshasa, in the DRC, will overtake Lagos within the next ten years and is on course to get into the world’s top 10. Luanda, the capital city of Angola, is expected to more than double in size to approximately 15 million people. Another potential megacity, Dar-es-Salam, is increasing by half a million people each year in Tanzania.

Americas do not expect other new megacities. Sao Paulo and Mexico City are the world’s fourth and fifth biggest cities. However, by 2030, they will have fallen to ninth and eighth place, respectively — each still a robust, rising town but unable to keep up with the excellent growth forecast in Asia and Africa.  The United States had six of the world’s twenty most prominent cities in the 19th century, and by 2030, there will only be one — New York.

Europe has had the most significant amount of population losses in cities. It also features the only location outside of Asia and Africa anticipated to become a megacity between now and 2030. Not Paris, Moscow, or Istanbul are already on the list. After a period of decline in the second part of the twentieth century, and roughly 200 years since it was the world’s most populated metropolis, London is once again rising rapidly according to the financial times.

The problems that the world’s megacities face are tremendous, as millions of people relocate into places often trying to retain their existing populations. These issues, including housing, pollution, transportation, infrastructure, inequality, and social cohesion, need innovative solutions.

Kennnedy Muturi

Ken is a Quantitative Trader with experience in investments, quantitative finance, financial modelling and algorithmic trading in Global Investable Markets (GIM). He enjoys using Bayesian Statistics, Time Series and Machine Learning in developing Robust consistent Alphas in Equities Market, FX, ETPs and Derivatives instruments. He enjoys deep dives in understanding High Frequency Trading infrastructures and improving how the African financial markets work. He holds a Bachelor's in Actuarial Science from Strathmore Institute of Mathematical Sciences : An Executive Program in Algorithmic Trading (EPAT) certificate in Algo Trading from QuantInsti : A current MSc student in Financial Engineering at World Quant University.

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